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Discussing recent trends in abrupt global warming, the slowing of the warming trend, and related phenomena

Gerd James

Although the fundamental explanation is still unknown, the mystery surrounding the recent halt in the global warming trend has attracted significant interest. This analysis addresses that topic by separating the influence of CO2-led linear anthropogenic contributions from those of natural forces (the sun and volcano). It separates the years 1976–1996 into two complete solar cycles, during which two explosive volcanoes erupted during active solar cycle phases. Furthermore, the time frame coincided with the duration of the abrupt global warming. It notes the importance of the Central Pacific ENSO's dominance and related water vapour feedback during that time. An explosive volcano's favoured alignment of the NAO phase could start the potential mechanism. It has caused the extratropical Rossby wave to affect the Aleutian Low. CP ENSO with a modulating effect. From that perspective, it is also possible to explain the disruption of the ENSO and Indian Summer Monsoon during the sudden warming episode and the following recovery. Interestingly, neither the CMIP5 model ensemble nor any of the individual models can account for this observation. It also considers potential regions where models might be missing significant contributions because of natural drivers.

Peer-Review-Publikation für Verbände, Gesellschaften und Universitäten pulsus-health-tech